< Transition Ireland >
- What's in it for Unionists? The Economics of Unity.
- Power & influence over & above what their numbers suggest:
In a 32-county Ireland, those Unionists/Protestants who choose to remain would command from 15 - 20% of the seats in a (Proportional Representation) Assembly. This would give direct influence (if they remained a coherent voting minority) over the Capital of the country - the National Assets, the Sovereign Wealth Fund, the land & infrastructure, the National Goodwill.
- Resolution of uncertainty over their place in the world.
It has been to our advantage that some Unionists have refused to return (as of June 2023) to the Stormont Assembly. By their own intransigence, they have deprived themselves of access to the levers of power, and are now outcasts from the International Community.
Ignored in Europe, derided in America, despised in London, they are now friendless and effectively homeless.
Northern Ireland is dying. Its place will NOT be restored in 'The Union', as England is too wrapped up in its own path to independence and sees the Northern Ireland colony as only an irritation and a drain on resources. Westminster has sold out unionists before, and they'll do it again.
- Introduction of a leavening conservative sentiment into modern Ireland:
There is a natural social and religion-based conservatism within Unionism. This will act as a counterbalance to the trend towards uncritical liberalism that has overtaken The South in recent years.
- Economies of scale for an industrious, business-oriented class:
Even a casual perusal of the economy in the 26 counties will show a depth of economic prosperity arising from
* national economic policy,
* judicious exploitation of Ireland's membership of the EU,
* a handsome return on work done by the IDA (Industrial Development Authority) and others over the years.
Long gone are the days (eg. in 1985/86) when Ireland was an economic 'basket case'. 1
1 By 1986, Irish debt was over £23 billion, an enormous 142% of Irish GNP. Of this Foreign debt stood at up to £9 billion.
Much is made of the subvention to Northern Ireland by Westminster under the 'Barnett Formula'.#
This year (2023), the figure is variously estimated at around £Bn13.
# The Barnett Formula is a mechanism used by the Treasury in the United Kingdom to automatically adjust the amounts of public expenditure allocated to Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales to reflect changes in spending levels allocated to public services in England, Scotland and Wales.
According to the House of Commons Library, there are several reasons why some nations need to spend more:
- The cost of providing public services can be higher if the population is spread more thinly
- Some UK nations have a bigger public sector. For example, the water industry is publicly owned in Scotland but not in England
- Different demographics, such as an older population, may mean more demand in some nations
- If the Barnett Formula is applied strictly, public spending should, in theory, be the same across the UK over time.
By these measures, Northern Ireland has the highest per-capita demand on the public largesse, indicating a serious malaise/imbalance within the society.
However, even if there were no benefits accruing from the rationalisation/economies of scale arising from a united country, Ireland would be well able to underwrite the NI subvention in the short to medium term:
- The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Ireland for 2021 was 504 $Bn *
- The corresponding figure for Northern Ireland was £Bn48.4 (source www.statista.com).
- The Gross Domestic Product per capita in Ireland was last recorded at 102,496.22 US dollars in 2021, when adjusted by purchasing power parity (PPP). *
- The corresponding figure for all of the UK in 2021 was $49,675
These figures make no provision for any support which may be provided by Britain, EU, USA and others to welcome the unity of the country.
- Life expectancy
Perhaps one of the most striking differences is in the area of life expectancy. From 2005 onwards, life expectancy in the Republic has exceeded that in the North to the extent that a child born in 2018 is expected to live 1.4 years longer than its Northern counterpart. Even a person aged 65 in the Republic can expect to live a half a year longer than 65-year-olds in the North.
A more comprehensive view of Irelands place in the world and its potential may be seen in the Human Development Index.
The Human Development Index (HDI) is a statistical composite index of life expectancy, education (mean years of schooling completed and expected years of schooling upon entering the education system), and per capita income indicators, which is used to rank countries into four tiers of human development. A country scores a higher level of HDI when the lifespan is higher, the education level is higher, and the gross national income GNI (PPP) per capita is higher.
By this measure, Ireland stands in 8th place (2021) between Sweden and Germany.
The United Kingdom stands in 18th place, between Luxembourg and Japan. ++
* Figures sourced from World Bank
* PPP indicates purchasing power (allowing for the cost of living) of the local currency expressed in U.S. dollars.
++ United Nations Development Program
- Caveat:
This is not to suggest that everything in the South is wonderful. There are substantial problems with housing and infrastructure, largely caused by muddled thinking and legacy issues over planning, along with migration and social norms.
There is also a question over GDP figures as they are skewed due to the influence of transient capital flows and corporation tax paid by foreign multinationals. High (tech) wages paid in some cities are not necessarily repeated in the country and among traditional industries.
This is why the Human Development Index and the adjustment for Purchasing Power Parity are important measures when considering Irish economic performance.
- National Debt
When a government spends more than it collects, it runs an annual budget deficit. This is formally known as the Public Sector Net Cash Requirement.
The accumulation of previous annual budget deficits, minus any years of surplus, constitutes the national debt. The national debt is therefore the government’s stock of outstanding debt.
According to figures from the European Commission, Ireland is forecast to have total government debt of €241.6 billion for 2021, up by almost 10 per cent on 2020. When considered on a per-person basis, this means that the debt burden will be € 48,291 this year, the highest across the European Union and the UK.
In 2022 Ireland public debt was 236 billion dollars, has decreased 42,732 million since 2021. This amount means that the debt in 2022 reached 44.7% of Ireland GDP, a 10.7 percentage point fall from 2021, when it was 55.4% of GDP. #
UK general government gross debt was £2,436.7 billion at the end of Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2022, equivalent to 101.9% of gross domestic product (GDP). ~~
This compares with an equivalent national debt to GDP of 61.7% for China, 73.3% for Germany, 89.3% for India, 118.7% for France, 131.1% for America, and 266.1% for Japan.
# European Commission
~~ Bank Of England as quoted on Politics.co.uk.
- Access to the positive economic assets and climate in the South.
One of the functions of government is to provide for future generations, build the national capital and goodwill, and give confidence, security and peace to the nation.
To this end, the various governments of Ireland have striven to establish Ireland's place in the world since Partition (1921). While Nationalists in the North have had to deal with the divisive onslaught of the British Empire, the South has gone about carving out a separate identity and has done so with success - on behalf of all the Irish people.
With reunification, the people will be able to build on this stable base by welcoming all Irish citizens and those who hold goodwill towards the emergence of Ireland into the light after so many years of darkness.
- A way out for those who have no wish to live on an Irish island.
Some will not, in good conscience, feel able to live on an island which is now completely owned and governed by the Irish people. We wish these people bon voyage and hope they will find somewhere they are comfortable.
There will be considerable demand for land and businesses in a new Ireland, so people who wish to leave can be confident of getting a good price for their assets.
- Resolution of issues with Europe.
It has already been established that the former colony of Northern Ireland, now an undivided part of the Irish nation, will be welcome in the European Union, thus erasing any difficulties with tariff borders etc. See the "Kenny Text" above.
Ireland will continue to be an active member of the European Union and will bring its own interests to bear in any decisions that the EU might make on cohesion, defence etc.
Ireland will be happy to make trading and other arrangements with England, Scotland and Wales, and will join international organisations as and when it sees fit.
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There are some issues which effect us all and will benefit from, indeed will require, a united approach:
- Global Warming & Mass Migration
It is becoming more and more obvious that we have failed in our efforts to curtail global warming. This is becoming an immediate problem.
The Sahara desert is creeping northwards, effecting North Africa and the south of Spain, Italy, Greece, the Mediterranean islands, the Levant and Turkey.
As these countries heat up, there will be a massive displacement of population which will look northwards enviously at the green, temperate zones of Northern Europe, including Ireland.
So, we have a decision to make; will we welcome this unprecedented influx of economic, climate and political refugees, or will we attempt to defend our borders and maintain the "integrity of the race"?
- Cyber Defence
To date, Ireland has shown little interest in defending its borders from external threat, taking the view that 'We are Neutral' and 'We are such nice people, why would anyone want to attack us?'
Unfortunately, acquisitive entities such as Russia, China and Islam do not take this view. They look upon us as a nice little piece of Real Estate, strategically placed between Europe and America.
It is incumbent upon the Irish to now use their discretionary wealth in a program to increase their physical defences - marine, personnel etc - and to set up a Cyber Defence capability using the wealth of tech know-how developed over the past twenty years.
This would be a succinct use of sovereign wealth island-wide and can be seen as a great collective national effort,